To: Office of the President of the People’s Republic of China
From: Office of the Ministry of National Defense
Re: Pandemic Capabilities Report
I have separated our current capabilities into those of infrastructure and those of our manpower. These are subdivided into transportation, communication, and security. I then end with a short description of possible recommendations in the event of a domestic or foreign originating disease.
Infrastructure
Transportation
Airports: 502 (442 Paved, 60 Unpaved)
Heliports: 48
Railways: 77,834 km
Roadways: 3,583,715 (53,913 km of expressways)
Waterways: 110,000 km
Our geography creates both potential difficulty and opportunity in the even of a global pandemic. There are extensive waterways spanning across major parts of the country from central China to the eastern coast. This could be very beneficial to us in the event of a mass migration from east to west or west to east. However, we must also be aware that these waterways may also potentially spread any waterborne diseases to millions of people. We must be prepared accordingly to shut down any major waterways to prevent such a spread.
There are also extensive mountain ranges and elevation changes separating many parts of the country. If we were to find ourselves with a disease inside our borders these mountains serve as barriers to transportation and possibly slow or stop the spread of the disease. Yet, if we were to find ourselves needing a large movement of people we would need to immediately mobilize all aircraft to ensure efficient transportation of people and materials. (A geographic map of our region can be seen in Figure 1)
Communication
Total Main Lines in Use: 313 Million
Cellular Phones in Use: 747 Million (Both Main Lines and Cellular Phones Controlled by China Telecom, China Mobile, and China Unicom)
Television and Radio: The Communist Party of China owns all Stations, all programs must be approved prior to broadcast
Internet Users: 389 Million
Looking at our current communications infrastructure it is clear we will be able to quickly come in contact with our citizens. It would be wise to have all methods as viable forms of communication including phones, broadcast media, and Internet. Most of our population lies East of 100 degrees East. This means any citizens West of 100 degrees East living in the rural areas may have limited forms of communication. Depending on the priorities of our action plan it will be important to act quickly to ensure those citizens are handled appropriately. (Our population density can be seen in Figure 2)
Manpower
Security
People’s Liberation Army: 2.3 Million (800,000 Reserves)
People’s Armed Police Force: 660,000 (260,000 on duty each day)
Militia: 8 Million
The People’s Liberation Army’s main goal is to ensure the security of The People’s Republic of China from outside forces. In the event of a pandemic originating in a foreign nation, this force of 2.3 million along with the support of 800,000 reserves, will be our greatest asset in ensuring that pandemic does not come inside our borders. In order to deploy these standing troops you would need to issue a mobilization order then allowing all branches of the PLA to be responsible for the mobilization of their respective troops.
The People’s Armed Police Force is currently equipped to respond to all public emergencies. The main responsibilities of the PAPF are to control all affected areas, and establish the infrastructure and information necessary to control the emergency. The Border Public Security Force, a component of the PAPF, would be capable and responsible for the control of all regional and international borders in the event of a pandemic. This security force would be able to regulate all entries and exits of individual as well as materials. The full strength of the PAPF (660,000) would be available for duty in any emergency situation.
The Militia Force, a grassroots military force, has in the past 10 years received substantial improvements in both quality of equipment and training. The force has been reduced in numbers from 10 million to 8 million, and has simultaneously been restructured. There are multiple layers of command culminating in absolute control from the provincial military commands. The Militia has also recently been increasing capabilities in emergency response, which will be crucial in the event of a pandemic. This force, if used efficiently, will help to ensure social stability, and assist in any military operations throughout the country.
Recommendations
In the event of a global pandemic, domestic or foreign in origin, it will be extremely important to have national priorities. We have the manpower and infrastructure to handle almost any emergency, but we must have priorities in order to effectively use those resources. If the disease were domestic in origin, my recommendation would be to immediately quarantine all affected areas and move all uninfected individuals away from infected areas. Using our many transportation methods we would be able to move the masses away from these areas and help stop the spread of the disease. If the disease were foreign in origin, depending on the proximity, I would recommend the immediate closing of all borders, including all non military or government air and sea travel. We would then use all available resources to screen the entry of any person or material to ensure the disease does not infiltrate our borders.
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